February 21, 2015

Ministry estimates Japan can produce 295 billion kWh of renewable energy in 2030

http://mainichi.jp/english/english/newsselect/news/20150221p2a00m0na018000c.html

The Ministry of the Environment has estimated that up to 295.2 billion kilowatt hours (kWh) of renewable energy including solar, wind and geothermal power could be produced in Japan in 2030, the Mainichi has learned.

That equates to about 31 percent of Japan's total energy production in fiscal 2013, which stood at 939.7 billion kWh. In fiscal 2013, renewable energy accounted for just 2.2 percent of the total.

The ministry outsourced calculation of the estimates to Mitsubishi Research Institute, and they were reported in a closed panel meeting in December last year. It does not plan to officially release the estimates until around June this year.

The estimates cover three scenarios. One is if energy policies remain as they are now, in which case 2030 would see 203.2 billion kWh of renewable energy (21 percent of the total production in fiscal 2013). However, if policies were expanded as much as possible, with electricity widely transferable across the country, then in 2030 solar power would generate 113.4 billion kWh, and wind power 56.9 billion kWh. With geothermal and small- and medium-scale hydroelectric power factored in, a maximum of 295.2 billion kWh could be produced, according to the estimates.

The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry predicts that if all the renewable energy sources it authorized through June 2014 were to operate, it would cost over 2.7 trillion yen a year to buy the power in a feed-in tariff system. However, the Ministry of the Environment, anticipating reduced prices for the feed-in tariff system, estimates that even with the largest predicted amount of renewable energy production in 2030, costs for buying the power could be kept to 2.25 trillion yen. If today's energy policies were maintained, it predicts the figure would only be around 1.36 trillion yen.

Furthermore, the Ministry of the Environment predicts that since renewable energy would serve as a replacement for fossil fuels, by 2030 Japan could save 11 trillion to 25 trillion yen that would otherwise end up overseas.

Under the basic energy plan that the Cabinet passed in April last year, it was stated that the government would aim to exceed the goal it had held until then of raising the level of renewable energy production in 2030 to 20 percent. As early as April, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry plans to finish compiling its own energy analysis. Its views on energy sources for 2030 and the amount of power that would come from nuclear power plants will be the focus of debate.

The Ministry of the Environment's estimates could affect the panel's discussions, but the ministry has not officially released its estimates and does not plan to do so until around June this year. An Environment Ministry official said, "The numbers change based on the conditions. They are not an expression of the ministry's views, and we do not want them to cause undue speculation, so we cannot release them yet."

February 21, 2015(Mainichi Japan)